8. The Financial Plan
8. The Financial Plan
The purpose of the Financial Plan is to ensure that there are adequate resources for implementation. This ensures that the projects included in the LRTP have a reasonable chance of being funded and prevents the LRTP from becoming a wish list of projects beyond likely available funding.
Revenue Forecasts
Revenue forecasts (Table 8.1) are provided by fund source for the most current data of the following programs and sources: the FHWA and FTA; New York State highway, bridge, and transit programs; major local capital improvement programs; and several categories of “other” funding presumed to have a high probability of availability for use on the transportation system during the plan horizon. The Revenue Forecast shows that UCTC estimates a total of $1.9 billion in funding to be available through the plan horizon; this represents an increase from $1.5 billion estimated in 2023. This increase is primarily due to the large influx of federal aid brought by the 2021 Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill.
Table 8.1: Ulster County Federal, State, and Local Revenue Forecasts
Baseline | 2026-2030 | 2031-2035 | 2036-2040 | 2041-2045 | 2046-2050 | Total | |
FHWA (Millions of $) | |||||||
National Highway Performance Program (NHPP) | $12.917 | $64.586 | $64.586 | $64.586 | $64.586 | $64.586 | $322.930 |
NYSDOT STBG Flex Ulster Share (UCTC TIP) | $1.060 | $5.300 | $5.300 | $5.300 | $5.300 | $5.300 | $26.500 |
NYSDOT Multicounty STBG Flex Where & When Ulster Share | $2.921 | $14.604 | $5.000 | $5.000 | $5.000 | $5.000 | $34.604 |
NYSDOT Multicounty Surface Transportation Block Grant Program (STBGP FLEX) – Ulster Sh | $2.000 | $10.000 | $10.000 | $10.000 | $10.000 | $10.000 | $50.000 |
STBGP Off-System Bridge (STBGP-OFF) | $3.088 | $15.441 | $15.441 | $15.441 | $15.441 | $15.441 | $77.205 |
BridgeNY Local Bridge & Culvert Formula Program | $2.767 | $13.835 | $13.835 | $13.835 | $13.835 | $13.835 | $69.175 |
Highway Safety Improvement Program (HSIP) | $1.481 | $7.405 | $7.405 | $7.405 | $7.405 | $7.405 | $37.025 |
HSIP RAIL | $0.141 | $0.704 | $0.704 | $0.704 | $0.704 | $0.704 | $3.520 |
Carbon Reduction | $0.259 | $1.296 | $1.296 | $1.296 | $1.296 | $1.296 | $6.480 |
PROTECT | $2.000 | $10.000 | $10.000 | $10.000 | $10.000 | $10.000 | $50.000 |
$677.439 | |||||||
FTA Programs (Millions of $) | |||||||
Sec 5307/5340 Small Urban | $2.100 | $10.500 | $10.500 | $10.500 | $10.500 | $10.500 | $52.500 |
Sec 5307 Urban/Mid-Hudson TMA | $0.666 | $3.330 | $3.330 | $3.330 | $3.330 | $3.330 | $16.650 |
Section 5310 | $0.164 | $0.820 | $0.820 | $0.820 | $0.820 | $0.820 | $4.100 |
Section 5339 Kingston UA | $0.300 | $1.500 | $1.500 | $1.500 | $1.500 | $1.500 | $7.500 |
Sec 5339 Mid-Hudson TMA | $0.296 | $1.480 | $1.480 | $1.480 | $1.480 | $1.480 | $7.400 |
Sec 5311 Rural | $0.195 | $0.975 | $0.975 | $0.975 | $0.975 | $0.975 | $4.875 |
Transit CCC | $3.016 | $15.080 | $15.080 | $15.080 | $15.080 | $15.080 | $75.400 |
$168.425 | |||||||
State Funds (Millions of $) | |||||||
NYS Dedicated HW and Bridge Trust Fund | $5.962 | $29.808 | $29.808 | $29.808 | $29.808 | $29.808 | $149.039 |
State HW Aid to Ulster County (CHIPS, POP, Harsh Winter, etc) (27% expended on FA road | $1.714 | $8.571 | $8.571 | $8.571 | $8.571 | $8.571 | $42.854 |
State HW Aid to Municipalities (CHIPS, POP, Harsh Winter, etc) (5.210/2) | $2.784 | $13.920 | $13.920 | $13.920 | $13.920 | $13.920 | $69.600 |
$261.492 | |||||||
Transit State Operating Assistance | $1.851 | $9.253 | $9.253 | $9.253 | $9.253 | $9.253 | $46.266 |
Modernization and Enhancement Program | $0.982 | $4.911 | $4.911 | $4.911 | $4.911 | $4.911 | $24.554 |
Accelerated Capital Transit Program | $0.181 | $0.903 | $0.903 | $0.903 | $0.903 | $0.903 | $4.516 |
$75.336 | |||||||
Local Funds | |||||||
Local Bridge & HW Maintenance Estimate | $7.878 | $39.392 | $39.392 | $39.392 | $39.392 | $39.392 | $196.958 |
County Highway and Bridge Funds (contractual and other) | $8.423 | $42.116 | $42.116 | $42.116 | $42.116 | $42.116 | $210.581 |
$407.539 | |||||||
Annual County Transit Payments | $3.000 | $15.000 | $15.000 | $15.000 | $15.000 | $15.000 | $75.000 |
Bed Tax | $2.000 | $10.000 | $10.000 | $10.000 | $10.000 | $10.000 | $50.000 |
$125.000 | |||||||
Other Supplemental or Competitive Funds | |||||||
New FA HW Funding | $1.080 | $5.400 | $5.400 | $5.400 | $5.400 | $5.400 | $27.000 |
NYSDEC Climate Smart | $0.600 | $3.000 | $3.000 | $3.000 | $3.000 | $3.000 | $15.000 |
Private Funds | $0.100 | $0.500 | $0.500 | $0.500 | $0.500 | $0.500 | $2.500 |
Other local Bridge | $4.220 | $4.220 | $4.220 | $4.220 | $4.220 | $4.220 | $21.116 |
TAP/Recreational Trails | $2.750 | $13.750 | $13.750 | $13.750 | $13.750 | $13.750 | $68.750 |
$134.366 | |||||||
New FA Transit Funding | $1.000 | $5.000 | $5.000 | $5.000 | $5.000 | $5.000 | $25.000 |
TMA Unallocated | $1.170 | $5.850 | $5.850 | $5.850 | $5.850 | $5.850 | $29.250 |
NYSERDA – Transit Capital and Electrification | $0.600 | $3.000 | $3.000 | $3.000 | $3.000 | $3.000 | $15.000 |
UCAT Capital Reserve | $10.000 | $10.000 | $10.000 | ||||
$79.250 | |||||||
Note: All figures in millions of dollars.
Development of System-Level Cost Estimates
System level estimates of costs are considered “target costs” and represent a specific investment strategy that a portion of the revenue will target, i.e., roads, bridges, transit rolling stock, transit operations, trails, etc. System level estimates of costs were divided into two main categories: cost-driven and revenue-driven.
Sankey Diagram
In order to illustrate the complex distribution of fund sources and how they are combined to support various target investments, a Sankey diagram was developed.
