4. Profile of the Region
Ulster County has a rich natural, cultural, and commercial history that continues to evolve. The County has experienced reoccurring periods of significant growth followed by subsequent decline and recovery since its settlement in the early 1600’s. The region continues to improve its economic outlook as evidenced by increases in employment, improvements in the real estate market, and increases in sales and hotel tax receipts and the strengthening of its ties to the New York Metropolitan area. However, municipal tax caps and lack of growth in personal income continue to place strains on both municipal and family budgets with increases in housing costs outpacing income growth. Transportation availability and cost is also a major concern for many households. This underscores the need to rethink how mobility can be improved within municipal and family budgets in a manner that allows the region to remain competitive and sustainable.
At 1,124 square miles – an area comparable in size to the State of Rhode Island – Ulster County is a geographically diverse region. The County is characterized by a variety of mountain and valley zones interspersed between two primary features: the Hudson River Valley and the Catskill Mountains. Within these primary features are several minor zones, including the Shawangunk Mountain and Marlboro Mountain regions and the Rondout-Esopus Valley and Wallkill Valley regions. Ulster County’s transportation system is heavily influenced by these geographic features. Early forms of freight movement included the Delaware and Hudson Canal (1828 – 1898), Ulster and Delaware Rail Road (1875 – 1932), the New York, Ontario & Western Railway (O&W, 1879 – 1957), and the Wallkill Valley Railroad (1866 – 1977). These critical corridors bisected Ulster County’s valleys, ridges, and mountain areas, opening up the largely rural interior of Ulster County and playing significant roles in establishing centers of commerce and trade throughout the county. These historic freight corridors eventually waned and gave way to today’s network of surface highways. They now form the backbone of the County’s trail system that links communities and the region.
Social, demographic, and economic trends directly influence transportation planning. A clear understanding of the region’s current characteristics and expected future trends will aid in the planning of a transportation system that meets the region’s specific needs. These relationships have been described using a “Live”, “Work”, “Play” analogy. Most of the County’s residents live along river valleys – the Rondout, Wallkill, Esopus and Hudson – in the eastern portion of the County. These historic settlements are also future growth areas where investments in transportation infrastructure and transit will be necessary in the future. Similarly, places where people work are located in activity centers of villages and hamlets, in and in and around the City of Kingston. Outside of these activity centers, major road corridors are home to highway-oriented businesses. Few employment centers have developed on these corridors except for the Route 9W corridor in the Towns of Ulster and Saugerties in the northern portion of the County and the Towns of Marlborough and Lloyd in the southern portion of the County.
Ulster County is a four-season vacation destination. Its abundant open spaces, trails, access to water, festivals, and similar attractions offer a myriad of opportunities for residents and visitors. These resources shape the demand on the transportation system and its components. In response UCTC has created new opportunities to connect communities with an integrated non-motorized system and sought to address the challenges of peak volumes that occur on weekends and with drivers unfamiliar with the road environment.
POPULATION
According to the 2023 American Community Survey –the latest estimate of demographic statistics available –the population of Ulster County is estimated at 182,109, which is up 2.1% since the 2020 Census but generally in line with the population estimates from the 2010 Census. As shown in Figure 4.1, the City of Kingston has the highest population density in the county with over 3,000 people per square mile. All other municipalities have a population density of less than 500 people per square mile, with the Villages of Ulster, New Paltz, and Marlborough, and the Town of Lloyd having a population density between 300 and 500 people per square mile.
As shown in Figure 4.1, local population changes are variable throughout the county between 2018 and 2023.1F
The most dramatic percent decrease in population by municipality occurred in the Towns of Kingston and Hardenburgh; however, the actual changes were relatively small with a decrease of 187 and 86 residents, respectively. The changes in these two municipalities express as a higher percentage change due to their relatively low populations. The Towns of Shawangunk and Wawarsing saw the highest total decline in population, with a decrease of 669 and 362 residents, respectively. The Towns of Esopus, Lloyd, and New Paltz, located adjacent to one another, saw high percent and total population increases. Collectively the three municipalities gained over 2,000 residents, where total growth in the County was 2,800 residents between 2018 and 2023. Additionally, the Town of Woodstock and the City of Kingston saw higher levels of growth as compared to the remainder of the County.
An overview of historic population trends in Ulster County reveals steady but declining growth rate from 1950 through to the 2010 decennial census. A strong 28% increase between 1950 and 1960 stands in stark contrast to the less than 3% increase between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 4.2) and the estimated 2.3% decline between 2010 and 2020. The population recovered in the post-Covid era with a 2.1% increase between 2020 and 2023 to almost match 2010 population levels.
An overall declining rate of population growth can be attributed to four primary factors: mortality, out-migration among older adults, a declining birth rate, and an inability to retain young people as they enter adulthood. As shown in Figure 4.3 below, the number of young people aged 0-14 as a share of the total population declined to 14% in 2023 from 16% in 2013 and 15% in 2018, and this trend is projected to continue. Like many other counties in the Hudson Valley, Ulster County has seen a continuous decrease in birth rates which has impacted and will continue to impact school enrollment, resulting in a total of 7 public school closures since 20132F.
Ulster County is home to an increasingly “greying” population. Older cohorts show steady growth in the overall share of total population, even though outmigration is occurring as aging seniors continue to live longer lives and members of the ‘Baby Boom’ generation – one of the largest in American history – steadily transition into their retirement years in large numbers. As a result, the median age in Ulster County has steadily increased – estimated to be 44.2 years in 2023 compared to 43.3 years in 2018.
Figure 4.4 illustrates the wide-ranging population estimates that have been produced for Ulster County by various demographic experts over the years. Older estimates tended to predict a steadily increasing population with recent estimates indicating the opposite trend. For example, Cornell University’s Program on Applied Demographics (PAD) projections of Ulster County’s population continue to show a decline in population albeit at a slower rate, while the New York Metropolitan Transportation Council (NYMTC) projections illustrate a steady or growing population.
It is nonetheless challenging to predict Ulster County’s population over several decades with any level of certainty. In general areas south of New Paltz are likely to see increases in population over time due to proximity to employment centers outside of the County while the City of Kingston area enjoys renewed interest due to costs, quality of life, and opportunities for networking with others from the metropolitan area. It should be noted that minority population especially the Hispanic population will continue to grow and that Ulster County borders two of New York State’s fastest growing counties – Dutchess and Orange Counties. All three counties have close economic ties.
The UCTC faces a major challenge in the development and selection of reasonable and accurate population estimates as factors just beyond the region can greatly influence growth prospects. This is already seen in the aftermath of the 2008 recession, the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the increasing ability to work remotely. Nevertheless, the current trends discussed above suggest that a positive growth scenario is more likely to occur going forward. UCTC will continue to adjust its population estimates using its knowledge of the region and the data from the informed sources as noted in Figure 4.4.
While future population projections are uncertain, it is important to note that resident population in Ulster County is not indicative of the needs of the transportation system. With significant second home ownership, large and numerous campgrounds, a booming short-term rental market, and multiple state parks; transportation demand soars during the summer months with estimates as high as 50,000 additional people utilizing the transportation infrastructure on a daily basis.
TITLE VI DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS
Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 prohibits discrimination by recipients of Federal financial assistance on the basis of race, color, and national origin, including matters related to language access for limited English proficient (LEP) persons.
UCTC uses six demographic categories as indicators to guide its monitoring of Title VI principles. Four categories – those of race, ethnicity, income and English proficiency – are typically recommended by FTA and FHWA in the process of carrying-out Title VI demographic analyses. In addition, UCTC examined the categories of age and physical ability in an effort to develop a comprehensive understanding of mobility-challenged populations in the Ulster County MPA. Data were derived from the 2023 American Community Survey five-year survey data.
Figure 4.5 illustrates the percent share that each category comprises of the total county-wide population. This share is then used to establish a “threshold” that can be used to conduct a more detailed analysis at the census tract or block-group level. 3F Any locations showing concentrations greater than the county-wide total are considered to be disproportionally high and should receive additional consideration during the transportation planning process.
As with statistics on population change, demographic indicators in Ulster County are somewhat skewed in certain locations due to group quarters such as prisons or college/university housing facilities. These include the State University of New York at New Paltz (located primarily in the Village of New Paltz), the Eastern and Ulster Correctional Facilities in the Hamlet of Napanoch (Town of Wawarsing), and the Wallkill and Shawangunk Correctional Facilities in the Town of Shawangunk. This is perhaps most evident among the Minority Populations category (defined as Asian American, Black or African American, Hispanic or Latino, Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander, American Indian and Alaska Native). The Towns of Shawangunk and Wawarsing show some of the highest concentrations of minority populations in the county, very likely due to the prison population in these areas. Outside of these locations, the City of Kingston reports some of the highest concentrations of minority populations, with nearly every Census block within the City showing concentrations near or above the county average of 26.5% minority in 2023 (Figure 4.7).
LABOR AND EMPLOYMENT
The process of monitoring, managing and predicting future travel demand requires at a minimum basic details regarding local and regional employment patterns. The labor market of the United States in the 21st Century is as diverse as it has ever been in history, and it continues to evolve. This holds true for the labor market of Ulster County, which continues to adjust to the demands of the new economy. Peak period travel demand – a primary benchmark by which we rate the transportation system – is largely dictated by the morning and evening commute of workers traveling to and from their places of employment. This trend has been lessening somewhat in the post-COVID era as the labor market continues to diversify into one that features more flexible hours of employment, jobs that are no longer anchored to the traditional office space, and a willingness and ability of workers to travel farther for employment.
According to the Federal Reserve of New York:
“Employement has been essentially flat in the years leading up to the pandemic and has remained about 5 percent below pre-pandemic levels during 2022. The professional and business services industry has been the main driver of job growth in recent years, and the leisure and hospitality sector has also outperformed somewhat, as the area is within a day trip from New York, City and includes part of the Catskill Mountains, with its parks, resorts, and nature activities.”
| Category | Jan 2018 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Resident Civilian Labor Force | 87,400 | 85,000 | 86,200 |
| Employed | 83,000 | 81,900 | 82,800 |
| Unemployed | 4,400 | 3,100 | 3,400 |
| Kingston MSA Unemployment Rate | 5.1% | 3.7% | 4.0% |
| NYS Unemployment Rate | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.6% |
| US Unemployment Rate | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
Unemployment rate in the Kingston Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), which includes the entirety of Ulster County, remains below the state rate and has continued to impove since the pandemic. Concurrently, however, the County’s labor force has decreased slightly since 2018, very likely a result of out-migration as well as from retirements as people age and chronically-unemployed workers permanently dropping out of the labor force. Table 4.1 shows the most recent snapshot of labor data for the County and how it compares to statewide and national trends. As shown, the unemployment rate in Ulster County has decreased more since 2018 when compared to New York State and US unemployment rates, but remains in line with the national average.
As described by the New York State Department of Labor (DOL) in their monthly labor profile for the Hudson Valley, for the 12-month period ending in January 2025, private sector employment in the Hudson Valley increased by 15,200 or 1.9 percent, to 819,000. DOL confirms that private sector job growth continues on a positive trend, with steady growth in private education and health services driving the growth. Leisure and hospitality is another industry experiencing strong job and wage growth.
The Hudson Valley Region’s January 2025 unemployment rate at 3.6 percent is lowest among the 10 Labor Market Regions in New York State, with the Capital Region (3.8 percent) and the Long Island Region (3.8 percent) close behind. For comparison within the Hudson Valley Region, the unemployment rate within the Kingston metro area was 4.0% in January 2025, compared to 4.1% in Sullivan County, 4.3% in the City of Poughkeepsie, 4.8% in the City of Middletown, and 5.1% in the City of Newburgh.8F
Figure 4.8 provides a historical context of the labor force from 2005-2024. While the labor force has seen significant recovery from both the 2008 recession and the COVID-19 pandemic, it has been experiencing a long-term downward trend since it’s peak in 2010. Overall, Ulster County unemployment during this period has experienced a steady rate of decline outside of the sharp spike in 2020 due to the pandemic. The unemployment rate for the state of New York has closely tracked that of Ulster County with the exception of remaining slightly higher since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The overall quality of jobs available in Ulster County continues to be a focus of Ulster County’s economic development efforts.
In 2024 the DOL published its Significant Industries report for the Hudson Valley, providing a description of “priority industries” on which local workforce investment boards should concentrate their workforce development resources. Such significant industries were identified on the basis of job counts, wage levels, job growth (both net and percent) over the 2018-2023 period, and expected job growth based on industry employment projections through 2030. Priority industries that may have been designated by economic development or workforce development officials were also considered. Significant industries identified for the Hudson Valley are listed below:
- Accomodation and Food Services: Accomodation employment, specifically, has seen a decline of 21.4% between 2018 and 2023. However, this industry has seen an increase recently due to the influx of business travelers as well as a vibrant tourism industry. This includes active recreational destinations such as the expansive trail systems, state parks, and ski slopes. In 2022, direct visitor spending reached $6.3 billion which represents a 20.3% increase from 2021. This industry is projected to grow by 98.3% by 2030. 10F
- Construction: The pending retirement of the Baby Boomers will contribute to more job opportunities. Local developers are hoping to take advantage of a strong housing market that is partially driven by relatively low interest rates and out-of-town buyers that have been priced out of the New York City housing market.
- Manufacturing: Job opportunities will arise from food manufacturing (NAICS Industry 311), chemical manufacturing (NAICS Industry 325), and computer and electronic product manufacturing (NAICS Industry 334) are the three manufacturing industries to make the significant industries list. Of the three, food manufacturing was the only industry to gain jobs between 2018 and 2023 — up 8.2%, adding 600 jobs.
- Transportation and Warehousing: While not necessarily prominent industries in Ulster County, the region has grown as a transportation hub in large part because of its proximity to major highways, especially in Orange County.
- Information: The Hudson Valley has become an increasingly popular location for film and television production based on its proximity to New York City. Lionsgate has opened a $100 million studio complex in Yonkers (Westchester County). A New York State Tax Credit Program has also played a role in cementing New York as one of the top locations for the film industry.
- Professional and Business Services: In recent months the sector has shown signs of a turnaround, as the industry has added 5,300 jobs between 2018 and 2023. As corporate profits gradually improve, so does the spending for these type of services, spurring a demand for office workers, computer specialists, engineers, accountants, lawyers and consultants.
- Educational Services: Largest employment base of any jobs sector, although area schools are likely to face layoffs in the coming years due to declining enrollment and budget cuts.
- Health Care: Demographic changes fueled a demand for nurses, home health aides, medical assistants and other health care specialists.
- Arts, Amusement and Recreation: The industry saw a decline of 1.9% between 2018 and 2023 losing about 300 jobs. This industry’s average annual wage ($40,000) was the lowest of all significant industries identified in 2023. However, the outlook for the industry is bright, as the number of jobs has been steadily increasing since 2020 and there is a swell of interest in the County’s special events and recreational spaces.
The top employment sectors in Ulster County include Health Care and Social Services, Retail Trade, Accomodation and Food Services, Educational Services, and Public Administration. The sectors showing the most notable gains in total employement share over time include Educational Services and Manufacturing. Many of these industries are still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic as shown in Figure 3.9 as the 2018 levels are often higher than 2023. However, industries such as Accomodation and Food Services are expected to continue to recover beyond pre-pandemic levels.
Of the top employers in Ulster County reported in 2020, the majority are concentrated in the greater Kingston area, but the county’s two largest employers – SUNY New Paltz and Mohonk Mountain House – are located in the greater New Paltz area and together create approximately 3,700 jobs. By comparison, 37 large employers in the Kingston area in 2020 accounted for nearly 10,000 total jobs, while the Ellenville area reports only three firms or organizations that employ 200 people or more. When reviewed by industry classificaiton, the areas of Health Care, Public Administration, Education, Accommodation & Food Services, and Retail account for 81% of the county’s top employers, or just over 16,000 employees.
A number of notable pockets of employment can be found outside of the major employment centers. These typically include town centers and hamlets along state or county routes, such as Wallkill, Napanoch, Kerhonkson, Marlborough, Boiceville, West Hurley/Woodstock, Rosendale and Saugerties. Locations of resorts can be seen in pockets of rural employment areas away from these centers.